February 2024

The main equity markets rose again in February. The EuroStoxx 600, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq climbed by 2.0%, 5.3% and 6.7% respectively between 31 January and 29 February.

The equity markets were once again led by the US technology sector, once again surfing on the theme of artificial intelligence. The highlight of the month was Nvidia’s eagerly-awaited quarterly report, which managed the feat of publishing above already stratospheric expectations and thus topped the $2,000 billion mark in market capitalisation. The most remarkable point underlined by its chairman Jensen Huang is that almost half of their chips are now used for inference, i.e. user queries, and not just model training, which testifies to everyone’s enthusiasm for intelligent applications.

Although we no longer hold this stock in Clartan Valeurs, we have ensured that a significant proportion of the portfolio – around 25% – is exposed to AI, either directly or indirectly, with a heavy emphasis on US companies such as Microsoft and Micron. In purely European funds such as Europe or Ethos, the managers unfortunately have much less choice, given that most of the champions of this discipline come from Silicon Valley.

We will come back to the possible material and economic consequences of this revolution at a later date, as these few lines are not enough.

More generally, the soft landing of the global economy is being confirmed by the macroeconomic indicators that we are watching closely, but the industrial recovery has yet to materialise. Some promising sectors, such as electric vehicles and renewable energies, have just entered a real air pocket. China, the world’s factory and therefore a bellwether for global industrial activity, remains at a standstill.

Most companies were cautious about the outlook for 2024, which had a negative impact on a number of our holdings. It is not unusual for companies to err on the side of caution at the start of the year, so we are not overly concerned.

Inflation is continuing to fall, and interest rate cuts are still expected in the next few months. On the very good news front, we note that European gas has returned to normal prices, at around €25/MWh, and that the energy crisis linked to the Ukrainian conflict is thus potentially well and truly over, which should give some breathing space to the continent’s manufacturers.

The Clartan funds rose slightly in February: Valeurs up 2.3%, Europe up 0.3%, Ethos up 1.8%, Évolution up 1.6% and Patrimoine stable compared with the end of January.